30-05-2024, 05:56 PM (This post was last modified: 30-05-2024, 05:58 PM by Gary Bauress.)
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies
There's usually some decent money to be made at this level as the bookies don't understand the ground battles.
So, my thoughts on the seats that I know about:
Harrow East - 2/1 for the Tories looks a decent price - this seat will be below the national swing from Tory to Labour. Currently a 8,500 majority but it bucks the local trend in that the Tories gained control of the council at the same time that everywhere around them goes backwards. Very strong small c conservative Asian community that have quite populist instincts. If Bob Blackman wins, I'd also expect him to be the next chair of the 1922 committee.
Macclesfield - Labour are 1/7 to overturn a majority of 10,500 that has been Tory since before the First World War. I used to work for the MP, who I'll happily raise a cool glass of schadenfreude to seeing get beaten, but will cover by taking up the 9/2 on him defending. Labour probably right to be favourites, but that feels a big price.
Southport - Labour 1/12 to overturn a majority of over 6,000 and win the seat for the first time ever with the Tories 7/1. Again, Labour are rightly favourites given the Tory MP is deeply unpopular, but the Lib Dems have previously held the seat and may just do enough to split the vote and allow the Tories to hold.
In short, Tories are possibly a shade underpriced - we might as well try to profit from any fortune they have. Any other local knowledge?
There's usually some decent money to be made at this level as the bookies don't understand the ground battles.
So, my thoughts on the seats that I know about:
Harrow East - 2/1 for the Tories looks a decent price - this seat will be below the national swing from Tory to Labour. Currently a 8,500 majority but it bucks the local trend in that the Tories gained control of the council at the same time that everywhere around them goes backwards. Very strong small c conservative Asian community that have quite populist instincts. If Bob Blackman wins, I'd also expect him to be the next chair of the 1922 committee.
Macclesfield - Labour are 1/7 to overturn a majority of 10,500 that has been Tory since before the First World War. I used to work for the MP, who I'll happily raise a cool glass of schadenfreude to seeing get beaten, but will cover by taking up the 9/2 on him defending. Labour probably right to be favourites, but that feels a big price.
Southport - Labour 1/12 to overturn a majority of over 6,000 and win the seat for the first time ever with the Tories 7/1. Again, Labour are rightly favourites given the Tory MP is deeply unpopular, but the Lib Dems have previously held the seat and may just do enough to split the vote and allow the Tories to hold.
In short, Tories are possibly a shade underpriced - we might as well try to profit from any fortune they have. Any other local knowledge?