03-07-2024, 03:45 PM in response to #58485
JonnyJ Wrote: This is a good little piece by Ben Walker that expands on my point about how it could really go either way for the Tories, as he points out, they are just as likely to end up on 17 seats as they are 167. That's how many seats are basically a toss up.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/07/ho...servatives
It's not very well researched though is it ?
The Liberal Democrats have had a very good election campaign. Their range is somewhere between 37 and 76 seats, and they are encroaching on Conservative territory. Of the 86 seats they have a fighting chance in, all but one are currently Tory held. In around 40 to 50 of these seats, a Liberal Democrat win will be a result of a Conservative collapse rather than a Lib Dem surge.
That's wrong. They are neck and neck with Labour in Hallam, and with the SNP in 3 seats in Scotland - 4 of their top 10 targets.