03-07-2024, 03:22 PM in response to #58496
Mr Nice 2.0 Wrote: The post election analysis will be interesting. There's clearly a reasonable swing to Labour as they're going to increase their 2019 % vote of 32% by 8 to 12%. And, it looks like the Lib Dems will gain 3 to 5% on their 7% voting share last time as well.
Labour got 10.2M votes in 2019, which was 32.1% of the vote. Their percentage will increase this time, obvs., but it'll be interesting to see by how much their vote number increases (if it does). Turnout in 2019 was 67.3%.
Mr Nice 2.0 Wrote: But, in reality its the collapse of the Tory party and flight to Reform which is really doing the damage. It really just shows how bad Sunak and his team are at this calling the election early allowing Farage to be so involved.
Farage's impact certainly didn't help the Tories, but I think it's overestimated somewhat. Large swathes of Conservative voters are pissed off with the Conservatives. Many will vote Reform to save spoiling their ballot. Regardless, they weren't voting Tory this time. (Or ever again, in some cases.)