03-07-2024, 03:03 PM in response to #58487
Lenny Baryea Wrote: "In around 40 to 50 of these seats, a Liberal Democrat win will be a result of a Conservative collapse rather than a Lib Dem surge"
That's interesting to me, because it chimes anecdotally. In my experience, there is little or no enthusiasm for Labour or the Lib Dems, but there is antipathy towards the Tories - from those who would never vote Tory and those who have always voted Tory. I suspect a good number of the latter group won't vote (with the rest of them switching to Reform if they can), so it'll be interesting to see what voter turnout is like. It could be very low, which will only add to the 'unrepresentativeness'.
The post election analysis will be interesting. There's clearly a reasonable swing to Labour as they're going to increase their 2019 % vote of 32% by 8 to 12%. And, it looks like the Lib Dems will gain 3 to 5% on their 7% voting share last time as well.
But, in reality its the collapse of the Tory party and flight to Reform which is really doing the damage. It really just shows how bad Sunak and his team are at this calling the election early allowing Farage to be so involved.