03-07-2024, 12:58 PM in response to #58445
Greenwich Shot Wrote: This is the thing. The poll percentages don’t look unreasonable, it’s just that they’ll get 20-ish percent everywhere.
The polls have my old seat of Reigate, where the Cons won 55% of the vote in 2019 and have won (including Unionists) every election since 1910, as a marginal:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi...at=Reigate
If they can lose there, they really can lose anywhere.
Yep, they're getting eaten by FPTP. Once you get below something like a 25% vote share, almost every seat is in play.
This is what I think a lot of people haven't got their heads round yet, probably because the Conservatives have never polled below 30% in their history but just consider that in 97 the Tories got 165 seats on 30%, they're currently averaging 21%, of course sub 100 is possible, especially with the amount of tactical voting and the fact that John Major and the Tory Party in 97 had nothing like the unfavourability of Rishi Sunak's Govt.