03-07-2024, 12:02 PM in response to #58364
JonnyJ Wrote: The truth is because of the bizarreness of this election, with the Tories at record low vote share and Reform involved there are just way, way more marginal seats than ever before.
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Tiny swings in vote share and turnout could be the difference in the Tories getting 60 seats or getting 170.
This is the thing. The poll percentages don’t look unreasonable, it’s just that they’ll get 20-ish percent everywhere.
The polls have my old seat of Reigate, where the Cons won 55% of the vote in 2019 and have won (including Unionists) every election since 1910, as a marginal:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi...at=Reigate
If they can lose there, they really can lose anywhere.